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The primary is over


June 8 2016

Now that the Democratic primary is over, my thoughts on how it went and a revised prediction for the November 8 election.

==Nov 8 prediction==

OK, now that we know it’s going to be a Trump - Clinton match, and primary season is over, my revised presidential prediction: This contest will be won hands down by women and minority voters.

It’s well known that a Republican can not win without Latino support (hence why the Bushes were so friendly to them). Even Florida Cubans look at Trump in disgust. So FL looks to be a pretty easy win for Clinton.

Trump supporters and BernieOrBusters consist primarily of white males; the Republicans might get Ohio this time around, but, if so, it will be the first time since 1960 Ohio is not a bellwether for the general election. Virginia is somewhat more blue than Ohio; it got more raw votes for Hillary in the primary than Trump, so I think this will go blue again.

Without Florida or Virginia, there are very few paths of victory for Trump. I’ve already bet money on Hillary winning and I don’t see anything to change that prediction.

Here is my current prediction map:
==I am glad Bernie ran==

I am very glad Bernie ran. My goal ultimately is to see government do something to fight the income inequality that has been increasing ever since the Nixon administration. Bernie Sanders, even though he had some ideas which may not be practical, had the right mindset: The increasing income inequality is one of the biggest problems threatening our nation, and it’s one we must look at.

I think Bernie had some really good proposals. I don’t think the US is ready for them yet. That’s why I filled in the oval for Hillary yesterday in my primary; not out of some great support for Hillary’s ideals, but out of a pragmatic concern that I would rather win an election than support someone who is unelectable (e.g., McGovern, Mondale, or Dukakis).

The popularity and support Bernie got shows that there are a lot of people out there ready for progressive ideals. But those ideals are not ready to become a reality yet.

Yes, the primary got ugly as Bernie was losing and his supporters were going through the denial and angry stages of grief. Yes, Nevada was a low moment in the primary. But we’re beyond that now. Hillary has won the nomination, and it’s time to concentrate on the general election.

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