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Final election prediction


November 4 2012

Since Nate's numbers are looking better and better for Obama every day, with only two days until the election, here's my final prediction, based on Nate Silver's model:

For people who do not look at this map, I am predicting that Obama will win with either 303 or 332 electoral votes, depending on whether Florida goes to Obama or to Romney. If Romney gets either Virginia or Colorado, he will have a better night than I predict he will have--but, without all of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio, he can not win the election on Tuesday. (To be pedantic, there are other much less likely paths to victory for Romney; he could, say, get Pennsylvania but not North Carolina, but results like that are really unlikely)

As it turns out, back in early September, I predicted an almost identical result:
That map is identical to my prediction today, except I predicted Romney will get Florida on Tuesday, as well as predicting Romney getting Iowa.

As an aside, this is how things looked back in 2004. Like today, there was one state up in the air--but, unlike today, that state (Ohio) determined the election:
This concludes my series of presidential elections predictions. I will not comment on politics again until after the presidential election is decided.

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