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In today's prediction, I am using Nate Silver's numbers from yesterday
which can be seen at 538.vk.tj to see how likely each candidate is
to win, and by how many electoral votes.
Assuming there is no correlation between the states, we get the following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.
In these numbers, I have determined a given candidate's chances of winning based on them winning or losing a given state.
Here are the chances of the incumbent (Obama) getting a certain number of electoral votes (EVs):
In contrast to this prediction, Dan McLaughlin thinks "Obama is toast".
To make these numbers, I ran 100,000 simulated presidential votes; this is a type of simulation called a "Monte Carlo" simulation.
No correlation between states
Assuming there is no correlation between the states, we get the following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.
Overall Romney 8.86% Tie 0.64% Obama 90.50%These numbers are show a considerable bounce for Obama compared to my last numbers.
By state
In these numbers, I have determined a given candidate's chances of winning based on them winning or losing a given state.
Obama gets OH Romney 3.46% Tie 0.43% Obama 96.11% Romney gets OH Romney 26.40% Tie 1.31% Obama 72.29% Obama gets FL Romney 0.28% Tie 0.03% Obama 99.70% Romney gets FL Romney 13.88% Tie 1.00% Obama 85.12% Obama gets VA Romney 3.46% Tie 0.55% Obama 95.99% Romney gets VA Romney 15.27% Tie 0.75% Obama 83.98% Romney gets FL and VA Romney 23.85% Tie 1.17% Obama 74.99% Obama gets FL and/or VA Romney 2.78% Tie 0.43% Obama 96.80%In the above blog, we look at the election probabilities based on various conditions. For example, if Obama wins Ohio, Romney has only a 3.46% chance of winning the election.
By electoral vote
Here are the chances of the incumbent (Obama) getting a certain number of electoral votes (EVs):
Obama EV 230-239 0.2% 240-249 0.6% 250-259 2.6% 260-269 6.0% 270-279 12.3% 280-289 17.8% 290-299 19.9% 300-309 14.8% 310-319 12.7% 320-329 7.5% 330-339 4.2% 340-349 1.2% 350-359 0.1% Mean 295.5 Median 294"Mean" is adding up all of the possible EVs together and dividing by 100,000. Median is sorting by the number of electoral votes and choosing the middle one.
Alternate point of view
In contrast to this prediction, Dan McLaughlin thinks "Obama is toast".
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