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# Saturday election prediction

## October 20 2012

In tonight's prediction, I am using Nate Silver's numbers from yesterday
which can be seen at

538.vk.tj to see how likely each candidate is
to win, and by how many electoral votes.

To make these numbers, I ran 100,000 simulated presidential votes; this
is a type of simulation called a "Monte Carlo" simulation.

**No correlation between states**

Assuming there is no correlation between the states, we get the
following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting
Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.

**Overall**
Romney 13.6%
Tie .8%
Obama 85.6%

These numbers more favor Obama than

Wednesday's
numbers; it appears he is getting a post-second-debate bounce.

**By state**

In these numbers, I have determined a given candidate's chances of
winning based on them winning or losing a given state.

**Obama gets OH**
Romney 6.02%
Tie 0.56%
Obama 93.42%
**Romney gets OH**
Romney 32.85%
Tie 1.55%
Obama 65.60%
**Obama gets FL**
Romney 0.70%
Tie 0.10%
Obama 99.20%
**Romney gets FL**
Romney 20.99%
Tie 1.26%
Obama 77.74%
**Obama gets CO**
Romney 9.72%
Tie 0.76%
Obama 89.51%
**Romney gets CO**
Romney 18.68%
Tie 0.93%
Obama 80.39%
**Obama gets NH**
Romney 12.06%
Tie 0.93%
Obama 87.01%
**Romney gets NH**
Romney 17.27%
Tie 0.60%
Obama 82.13%

In the above blog, we look at the election probabilities based on various
conditions. For example, if Obama wins Ohio, Romney has only a
6.02% chance of winning the election.

**By electoral vote**

Here are the chances of the incumbent (Obama) getting a certain number
of electoral votes (EVs):

Obama EV
220-229 .1%
230-239 .4%
240-249 1.4%
250-259 4.1%
260-269 8.4%
270-279 14.2%
280-289 18.3%
290-299 18.3%
300-309 13.6%
310-319 11.2%
320-329 6.1%
330-339 3.0%
340-349 .7%
Mean 291.6
Median 290

"Mean" is adding up all of the possible EVs together and dividing by
100,000. Median is sorting by the number of electoral votes and
choosing the middle one.

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