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Thursday election prediction


October 18 2012

In tonight's prediction, I am using NerdWallet's numbers from today. This is otherwise very similar to yesterday's blog.

No correlation between states

Assuming there is no correlation between the states, NerdWallet gives the following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.
Romney   32.4%
Tie       1.2%
Obama    66.4%

The big three: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio

I have looked at how Romney's victory or loss in these three states affects the election results based on Nerd Wallet's numbers:
Obama gets OH
Romney   20.88%
Tie      0.73%
Obama    78.38%
Romney gets OH
Romney   50.52%
Tie      1.98%
Obama    47.50%

Obama gets FL
Romney   6.23%
Tie      0.74%
Obama    93.04%
Romney gets FL
Romney   46.91%
Tie      1.46%
Obama    51.63%
As before, there are few paths to victory for Romney if Obama gets Florida. Romney's chances decrease by over 10% if Obama gets either Ohio or Virginia.

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